Really beautifully written bull thesis on Samsonite, and thank you for sharing my friend!
However, I don't think the description of the business moat is sufficient to convince me that this is a great company to own for the intermediate to long-term should the dual listing arbitragers failed their mission to close the value gap. The data point on your wife's brand awareness of the biz is comforting and can be a thesis point, but it falls short, in my view, in arguing why exactly is it special/differentiated. Suitcases serve the functionality of carrying personal items, so do they illustrate personal status when they are resting in a hotel room when you're in professional meetings? Do they illustrate personal taste or serve social functions when you're flying solo on an airplane? Can the design and make of these products be so advanced that you strongly prefer carrying one brand vs. another because of substantially lighter weight/ease of movement/great hand touch/etc? I simply do not get how such a product can be differentiated and how much of a role brand plays in sales and how much pricing power is embedded. And yes profitability and sales improved but is it completely due to operational improvements or can it also be due to a strong post-Covid recovery? Just want to point out that both their revenue and FCF for 2023 still fall short of what they achieved back in 2019, yet back then they traded at 15 HKD/share.
For SN, yes the special situation played out well, and huge congratulations! On the other hand, given SN has to do with the US real estate industry and anything associated with this industry last year surged like insane (even the home builders like Pulte Group and DR Horton, or cement producers like ROAD and CRH, all up 70%-110%), I am not sure how much is due to the special situation and how much is simply industrial tailwind. I did not think SN has a deep moat (like White Electronics, for instance) that's why I did not load it up, and I still do not think it does. Operational efficiency is a plus, but the business itself does not sound to be deeply moaty to me.
Anyhow, grateful for you to share this and overall I think it's particularly well articulated. Thanks & have a great weekend!
Really beautifully written bull thesis on Samsonite, and thank you for sharing my friend!
However, I don't think the description of the business moat is sufficient to convince me that this is a great company to own for the intermediate to long-term should the dual listing arbitragers failed their mission to close the value gap. The data point on your wife's brand awareness of the biz is comforting and can be a thesis point, but it falls short, in my view, in arguing why exactly is it special/differentiated. Suitcases serve the functionality of carrying personal items, so do they illustrate personal status when they are resting in a hotel room when you're in professional meetings? Do they illustrate personal taste or serve social functions when you're flying solo on an airplane? Can the design and make of these products be so advanced that you strongly prefer carrying one brand vs. another because of substantially lighter weight/ease of movement/great hand touch/etc? I simply do not get how such a product can be differentiated and how much of a role brand plays in sales and how much pricing power is embedded. And yes profitability and sales improved but is it completely due to operational improvements or can it also be due to a strong post-Covid recovery? Just want to point out that both their revenue and FCF for 2023 still fall short of what they achieved back in 2019, yet back then they traded at 15 HKD/share.
For SN, yes the special situation played out well, and huge congratulations! On the other hand, given SN has to do with the US real estate industry and anything associated with this industry last year surged like insane (even the home builders like Pulte Group and DR Horton, or cement producers like ROAD and CRH, all up 70%-110%), I am not sure how much is due to the special situation and how much is simply industrial tailwind. I did not think SN has a deep moat (like White Electronics, for instance) that's why I did not load it up, and I still do not think it does. Operational efficiency is a plus, but the business itself does not sound to be deeply moaty to me.
Anyhow, grateful for you to share this and overall I think it's particularly well articulated. Thanks & have a great weekend!
It’s interesting that the OTC version even outperformed the 1910 HK lol.